Zone PM — 7/15/30-day book, research-led (01 Nov 22:22 IST, paper, claude-sonnet-4-5)

Nifty +0.77%, breadth 63.1% (neutral). IT/Capital Goods/Services sectors showing strength. Regime allows selective zone trades but not broad risk-on. Scorecard: zpm book -Rs 41L (16 trades, 4 wins, -2.52% exp), 7d/30d books negative. Only 15d book (+0.16% exp, 5 trades, 2 wins) and dr/sc books positive.

IGIL · 15d — International Gemological Institute: debt-free gem certification monopoly, ROCE 69%, ROE 56%, Q2 FY27 sales ₹398 Cr (+31% YoY), NP ₹186 Cr (+43% YoY). OPM 61% sustained. Four-quarter sales trajectory 320→369→371→398 Cr (consistent acceleration). Promoter 76.6%, FII/DII 14.3%. Valuation P/E 25.8x, P/B 10.2x stretched but quality warrants premium. Working capital days deteriorated -103→+113 (watch for FCF compression).
catalyst: Q3 FY27 results (Jan 2027) to confirm WC normalization and margin sustenance >60%; any FY27 guidance on 25%+ sales CAGR and ROCE >65% would re-rate (2027-01-15) · entry zone [385, 395] · stop 370 · target [420, 440] · size 10% · conf 0.68
wrong if: WC days >120 in Q3, OPM <58%, or any guidance miss on sales growth <20% YoY

ELECON · 15d — Elecon Engineering: gear/material handling equipment, ROCE 20.9%, ROE 16.4%. Q2 FY27 sales ₹639 Cr (+10.6% YoY, +22.6% QoQ), OPM 23% (+200 bps QoQ), NP ₹96 Cr (+26% QoQ). Order book ₹1,640 Cr (+33% YoY). Margin expansion and order intake momentum intact despite TTM profit -31% (distorted by Mar 2026 tax anomaly: 85% rate). Desk logged 15d idea Oct 29: entry 430-445, stop 410, target 480-510 (conf 0.68).
catalyst: Q4 FY27 order book conversion into revenue (Jan 2027 results); FY28 guidance on margin and growth (Apr 2027 results) (2027-01-20) · entry zone [430, 445] · stop 410 · target [480, 510] · size 12% · conf 0.68
wrong if: Order book conversion delay, OPM falls <10% in Q3, or capital goods cycle slowdown evident in order intake <₹600 Cr/quarter

WIPRO · 15d — Wipro: IT services, ROCE 17.8%, ROE 15.5%. Q2 FY27 sales ₹24,753 Cr (+9.1% YoY, +1.1% QoQ), NP ₹3,200 Cr (-1.4% YoY, -4.6% QoQ). OPM 20% flat. Q3 guidance -1.5% to +0.5% signals deceleration. Deal bookings weakest in 15 quarters. FLARRE.AI acquisition (20% stake, Oct 31 close) adds AI/ML capability. Dividend yield 5.6% attractive. Desk logged 15d idea Oct 29: entry 186-193, stop 178, target 205-215 (conf 0.52). Current 198.3 within entry band but Oct 23 log warns 'DO NOT TOUCH'.
catalyst: Q3 FY27 results (late Jan 2027) must show deal bookings recovery and margin re-expansion; FLARRE.AI acquisition close (Oct 31, 2026) (2027-01-25) · entry zone [186, 193] · stop 178 · target [205, 215] · size 8% · conf 0.52
wrong if: Q3 guidance miss (revenue <-1.5%), deal bookings <$3B, or headcount reduction >8% YoY

SENCO · 30d — Senco Gold: jewelry retail, ROCE 21.2%, ROE 25.6%. Q2 FY27 sales ₹3,056 Cr (+67.4% YoY), but OPM fell to 7% from 10% QoQ and 13% in Dec 2025. NP ₹101 Cr (-56% QoQ, -4% YoY). TTM sales ₹9,660 Cr (+43% YoY), TTM profit ₹571 Cr (+168% YoY). Melorra acquisition (68% stake, ₹68 Cr, completion Feb 2027) signals organized jewelry consolidation. Q3 outlook flagged as 'strong' (Oct 8 news). Stock down 27.6% in 3m from ₹430 high.
catalyst: Q3 FY27 results (Nov/Dec 2026) for OPM recovery and same-store sales trend; Melorra acquisition completion (Feb 2027) for integration synergy (2026-11-30) · entry zone [310, 320] · stop 290 · target [360, 380] · size 10% · conf 0.58
wrong if: OPM <7% in Q3, same-store sales growth <10%, or Melorra acquisition delayed beyond Feb 2027

APARINDS · 15d — Apar Industries: conductor/cable/transformer oil, ROCE 31.8%, ROE 20.3%. Q2 FY27 sales ₹6,931 Cr (+21.3% YoY), NP ₹447 Cr (+78% YoY). OPM 10% (+2pts QoQ). Valuation stretched: P/E 46.9, P/B 7.62. Promoter holding fell 2.34% Jun→Sep 2026 (57.77%→55.42%), signalling dilution. High interest cost (₹504 Cr TTM, +13% YoY). Q2 beat is real but valuation leaves no margin of safety.
catalyst: Q3 FY27 (Jan 2027): capex deployment update on ₹1,500 Cr FY27 plan; margin sustainability test. FY27 full-year results (May 2027): confirm if OPM >10% sustainable. (2027-01-15) · entry zone [15000, 15200] · stop 14500 · target [16200, 16800] · size 7% · conf 0.55
wrong if: OPM <9% in Q3, promoter dilution accelerates >1% per quarter, or capex ROI <15% on ₹1,500 Cr plan

Do not touch: RAYMOND (Desk log shows 30d WAIT (below VWAP 1088 all day). Aerospace tailwind (+72% YoY) is real but textile core weak (sales -8% 5yr). Margin compression (OPM 13%→11% QoQ). Fundamentally weak compounder (ROCE 3.14%, ROE 168% distorted by tiny equity base). Valuation P/E 137 nonsensical.); HEGAM (Graphite electrode cyclical; Q4 FY26 disaster (OPM -25%, Op Loss ₹-148 Cr). Q2 FY27 recovery (OPM 22%, NP ₹122 Cr) unproven. ROCE 8.35%, ROE 7.42% below hurdle. Other income ₹432 Cr (16% of TTM profit) non-recurring. Warrant dilution (11.92L shares) headwind. Wait for Q2 FY27 earnings call (5 Nov) to confirm if OPM sustains >17%.); ARVINDFASN (Apparel retail deteriorating: Q1 FY27 sales ₹1,278 Cr (-6.4% QoQ), NP ₹28 Cr (-57.6% QoQ). OPM 12% (-200 bps QoQ). ROCE 19.6% but ROE only 14.1% (vs 6.3% 3-yr avg). Varanasi capex (₹49.99 Cr Oct 2026) not yet in earnings. Q2 FY27 results conference call Nov 3, 2026 (4 days ahead) is catalyst but current deteriorating trajectory argues against entry until post-call clarity.); URBANCO (Urban Company: loss-making (TTM profit -₹457 Cr), ROCE -7.82%, ROE -12%. Q2 FY27 sales ₹537 Cr but OPM -36% (worst in window). Karwa Chauth demand surge (30% growth Oct 29-30) is one-off, not structural. Promoter holding low (19%). Stock at 11.5x book value. Avoid until profitability path clear.)

From the scorecard: zpm book -Rs 41L (16 trades, 4 wins, -2.52% exp) is bleeding; 7d/30d books negative. Only 15d book (+0.16% exp, 5 trades, 2 wins) and dr/sc books positive. Focus on 15d horizon with dated catalysts (results, order flow) and avoid stretched valuations or deteriorating trajectories. Quality (ROCE >20%, ROE >15%) + catalyst clarity + valuation discipline = edge.

Regime supportive (breadth 63%, Nifty +0.77%). SHAILY surging +3.1% on Q2 beat (₹66.94cr NP, +63% YoY vs Q1's +17%), thesis strengthening with accelerating growth. MPHASIS flat -0.6%, within noise for a 15d horizon with 8 days remaining. Both theses intact.

TRAIL SHAILY — Q2 results crushed expectations (+63% NP vs +17% Q1). Up 5.2% peak, now +3.1%. Trail stop to ₹3050 (entry +0.8%) to lock gains while riding momentum.

HOLD MPHASIS — Down 0.6% is noise. 8 days to deadline, no adverse news. Scotland deal and HDFC stake increase thesis intact. Stop at ₹2380 adequate.

Nifty +0.77%, breadth 63.1% (neutral). IT/Capital Goods/Textiles in play. Zone book: 16 closed, 4 wins, -Rs 4.1L (avg loss -4.84%). Recent 7/15/30d entries stopped out; 1d/dr books positive. Regime: selective, catalyst-driven only.

ELECON · 15d — Gear/material-handling equipment maker. Q3 sales ₹639 Cr (+10.5% YoY), OPM 23% (+100bps), NP ₹96 Cr (+9%). Order book ₹1,640 Cr (+33% YoY), intake ₹750 Cr (+8%). ROCE 20.9%, ROE 16.4%, debt-free. Recent 15d stop (-7.3%) cleared weak hands; ex-div Oct 21 explains dip.
catalyst: Order book conversion into Q4 revenue (Jan 2027); FY28 guidance (Apr 2027) on margin sustainability (2027-01-15) · entry zone [430, 445] · stop 410 · target [480, 510] · size 10% · conf 0.68
wrong if: OPM falls below 20% in Q4 or order book conversion stalls (revenue <₹700 Cr Q4)

HYUNDAI · 15d — Auto OEM. Q2 sales ₹20,696 Cr (+18.5% YoY), NP ₹1,196 Cr (+307 Cr QoQ). Parent $15.5B capex plan through 2032. Bayon SUV launch at ₹9.99L (entry segment, high volume). ROCE 38.4%, ROE 29.9%, debt-free. Brokerages see 31% upside (Nomura Buy, CLSA margin recovery).
catalyst: Bayon launch ramp (Oct 2026); Q3 results (Jan 2027) to confirm volume/margin trajectory (2027-01-20) · entry zone [1900, 1940] · stop 1820 · target [2050, 2150] · size 12% · conf 0.71
wrong if: OPM falls below 9% in Q3 or Bayon volumes <10k units/month by Feb 2027

CGPOWER · 15d — Power systems/industrial equipment. Q2 sales ₹3,802 Cr (+30% YoY), NP ₹409 Cr (+44% YoY), OPM 14%. RDSO approval for ₹433 Cr Kavach 4.0 order (Oct 26). ₹3,000 Cr QIP deployed. ROCE 26.7%, ROE 20.5%, debt-free. Motilal Oswal target ₹1,140 (+37%).
catalyst: Kavach 4.0 order execution ramp; Q3 results (Jan 2027) to confirm 30% YoY growth sustains (2027-01-25) · entry zone [820, 845] · stop 785 · target [920, 980] · size 10% · conf 0.65
wrong if: Working capital days >80 or OPM <12% in Q3; Kavach order execution delays beyond Mar 2027

WIPRO · 15d — IT services. Q2 sales ₹24,753 Cr (+9.1% YoY), but NP ₹3,200 Cr (-1.4% YoY, -4.6% QoQ). Q3 guidance -1.5% to +0.5% (flat/down). Deal bookings weakest in 15 qtrs; headcount -6% YoY. Bonus issue announced Oct 27. Dividend yield 5.79%. ROCE 17.8%, ROE 15.5%.
catalyst: Q3 results (late Jan 2027) and deal wins; FLARRE.AI acquisition close (Oct 31) (2027-01-28) · entry zone [186, 193] · stop 178 · target [205, 215] · size 8% · conf 0.52
wrong if: Q3 guidance revised below -2% or deal bookings remain <$3B for 2 consecutive quarters

Do not touch: RAYMOND (Textile structural decline (-8% CAGR 10Y). Aerospace +72% YoY but nascent. ROCE 3.14% critically low. FII holding collapsed 14.39%→7.19%. No dividend. Rebranding hype, not earnings.); AEQUS (Aerospace supplier. Net loss ₹52 Cr Q2 (vs ₹21 Cr YoY). OPM collapsed 9%→3.4%. Promoter pledge 25.4%. Interest coverage critically low. Consumer ramp delayed. Stock -26% off high.); APARINDS (Cables/conductors. Q2 beat (NP +78% YoY) but promoter sold -2.34% Jun 2026. P/E 47.4, P/B 7.79 stretched. Debt ₹504 Cr interest (+13% YoY). Valuation leaves no margin for error.); ARVINDFASN (Apparel retail. Q1 sales -6.4% QoQ, NP -57.6% QoQ. OPM 12% (-200bps QoQ). Varanasi plant capex not yet in earnings. ROE 14.1% weak. Trajectory deteriorating.)

From the scorecard: Zone 7/15/30d book: 16 closed, 4 wins, -Rs 4.1L. Avg loss -4.84% > avg win +4.45%. Recent stops (SHAILY, MPHASIS, ELECON) show mechanical entries fail in choppy regime. Must demand: (1) dated catalyst <30d, (2) improving trajectory (not just beat), (3) price not yet reflecting it. Avoid stretched names (APARINDS P/E 47), pledged promoters (AEQUS 25.4%), deteriorating margins (ARVINDFASN OPM 12%→14%→12%). Prefer businesses with visible order books (ELECON ₹1,640 Cr, CGPOWER Kavach ₹433 Cr) and institutional accumulation (HYUNDAI DII 7.1%→11.9%).

Market firm (+0.77% Nifty, 63% breadth). Both positions holding well near entry with theses intact. SHAILY down 1% but fundamentals strong—debt-free, 30% OPM, 20% sales growth. MPHASIS up 1%, recent stake raise by HDFC MF validates quality. No news contradicting either thesis. Stops appropriate.

HOLD SHAILY — Down 1% on strong day but thesis intact. Debt-free, 30% OPM, 20% TTM sales growth. Stop at 2900 adequate (5.7% below). No churn warranted.

HOLD MPHASIS — Up 1.1%, recent HDFC MF stake raise confirms quality. Q2 solid, Scotland deal progressing. Stop at 2380 protects downside (6.1%). Holding well.